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Crypto Markets Down as SEC Grayscale Appeal Deadline Looms

Oct 13, 2023 - 5 min read

What happened last week

Crypto Markets Down as SEC Grayscale Appeal Deadline Looms

Nothing new under the sun on Friday as crypto markets have continued their path downwards throughout the week with BTC cutting -5% overall but seems to have found support in the 26’500 area Thursday. Despite some positive headlines this week it wasn’t enough for any major tokens to regain some losses. Most notably Blackrock and Barclays transferred collateral to the Onyx network which is run by JP Morgan. Mastercard also announced a CBDC project. The crypto board by market cap is exclusively red today and the same for equities. This likely comes as the US CPI print yesterday came in slightly above expectations. Despite the downturn in equities this morning, most seem to be on track to close the week in the green. Also, gold is up almost 3% on the week. This week there has also been a lot of focus on the FTX case which is ongoing, this week Caroline Ellison has for multiple days provided her testimony to the amusement of crypto twitter.

Today marks the deadline for the SEC to appeal the latest decision in the Grayscale case. Sentiment seems to be that the SEC is not going to appeal and looking at the delta to NAV, the discount is now less than 20% which it has not been for 2 years which also indicates the expectations. A no-appeal is obviously very positive for spot ETFs but an outright approval is yet to be made.


Our take

While an appeal is considered unlikely, the SEC still has avenues to potentially delay approval. An outright approval of the ETF would significantly impact the cryptocurrency market and pave the way for other similar applications. The odds of approval, as per Bloomberg analysts, stand at 75% this year, increasing to a 95% likelihood by the end of 2024. The SEC's choice will have far-reaching implications for the future of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds. It is also likely that the SEC will approve multiple spot ETFs at the same time to keep competition fair as they did when the ETF futures ETFs were approved.


The week ahead

Monday, 16 October

  • 2x ECB Speeches
  • 2x BoE Speeches
  • 1x Fed Speech

Tuesday, 17 October

  • Various US Manufacturing figures
  • Fed Speech
  • ECB Speech
  • DE Bundesbank Speech
  • Ecofin Meeting

Wednesday, 18 October

  • China GDP
  • China Unemployment
  • ECB Lagarde Speech
  • EA Inflation Rate
  • 5x Fed Speeches

Thursday, 19 October

  • 1x Fed Speech
  • US Jobless Claims

Friday, 20 October

  • Fed Speech

Sunday, 22 October

  • Argentina General Election
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