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This Week’s Top Stories

“High Chances uf a Multi-Altcoin Spot ETF Approval by the SEC.” – Monday, 10 February 2025

• Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and his team analyzed various filings for spot ETFs, for which decisions are pending for approval in 2025. The analysts focused mainly on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin.
• For all of the above, the final deadline for a decision by the SEC is in October 2025, with the final decision for Litecoin set for October 2.
• According to the analysts, the Litecoin spot ETF is the most likely to be approved in 2025, with approval odds at 90 percent, followed by Dogecoin at 75 percent, Solana at 70 percent, and XRP at 65 percent.
• It’s important to note that in the meantime, the XRP and Dogecoin 19b-4s were acknowledged by the SEC as well, likely increasing the approval odds for the two spot ETFs.

“U.S. CPI Hotter Than Expected, But Powell Said: We Target PCE Inflation.” – Wednesday, 12 February 2025

• The U.S. consumer inflation increased at its fastest pace in 1.5 years in January, with CPI rising 0.5 percent. Shelter, food, and gasoline led the rise in prices. The market had expected an increase of 0.3 percent for January, meaning the CPI inflation came in higher than expected.
• While the higher-than-expected CPI data spooked the market for a short while, comments from both President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell seemed to calm down the market quite quickly. Especially Powell’s remarks regarding the Fed’s focus on PCE inflation rather than CPI, as he believes the PCE to be a better measure. December PCE came in as expected at the end of January and the January PCE will be released on 28 February 2025.

A Quick Crypto Overview: A Sideways Week For Crypto

The chart below highlights this week’s excitement in the crypto markets – pricewise not much happened. While there was some short-lived excitement around the release of the U.S. consumer inflation data, the market has since recovered and continues to trade within a sideways range.

Bitcoin dominance has dipped slightly this week, losing almost 1.7 percent since Sunday evening. The total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and the total market capitalization excluding both Bitcoin and Ethereum have both risen slightly more than the overall total market capitalization.

However, the dynamic between Ethereum and Bitcoin isn’t reflecting this shift too much, as ETH/BTC continues to trade sideways. That said, Ethereum is up almost 20 percent from its low on Monday, February 3, which appears to have been a capitulation event for Ethereum holders.

This is a chart to keep in mind when considering the potential for a Bitcoin-denominated altcoin rally.

Chart of the Week: COIN

Last night, Coinbase released their Q4 earnings report and blew away analyst expectations, with Q4 revenue coming in at $2.27 billion compared to the expected $1.84 billion. When looking at its numbers for the entire year of 2024, the results are even more staggering – Coinbase recorded a net income of $2.6 billion for the year, with total revenue reaching $6.6 billion.

An interesting side fact: In Q4, Coinbase generated 40 percent more transaction revenue from customers trading XRP (14 percent of the total) than from those trading ETH (10 percent of the total), while Bitcoin transactions led with 27 percent of the total transaction revenue.

What’s Happening On-Chain? CZ’s Dog, Central African Republic Token, OpenSea Token & More

Celebrities launching memecoins is nothing new, right? That’s what CZ, founder and former CEO of Binance, told himself on Wednesday when he tweeted about his dog and how he thought it would be an interesting idea to launch a memecoin for it. In his usual fashion, he mentioned that he would need a couple of days to think about it. He also noted that he might interact with some memes on BNB Chain.

Yesterday, he then posted a couple of pictures of his dog, Broccoli, and shared some insights about their story. He clarified that he will not be issuing a memecoin himself and is leaving it up to the community to decide whether to do so. Once again, he mentioned that he will be interacting with a few of the popular memes on BNB Chain and that the BNB Foundation may provide rewards for the top memes on the chain, including LP support or other measures.

The market seems to have found a winner, as hundreds – if not thousands – of memecoins named Broccoli were launched following CZ’s post on X. One of them is currently trading at a $220 million market capitalization at the time of writing, leaving all the others behind.

There were rumors circulating this week about a potential Pump.Fun token. One of the co-founders addressed the speculation, stating that the claims were incorrect. However, he also mentioned that the team has always been committed to properly rewarding its users and that good things take time. So, the rumors might not be entirely unfounded after all – but only time will tell.

Last Sunday, the President of the Central African Republic announced on X that they are launching CAR, an experiment designed to demonstrate how something as simple as a meme can unite people, support national development, and put the Central African Republic on the world stage in a unique way. He also posted the contract address.

Following the launch, rumors spread that his account might have been hacked. However, he later clarified that his account and the circulating videos were not fake and that this is indeed an initiative to promote innovation and blockchain adoption in the Central African Republic.

The CAR token reached a total market capitalization of almost $900 million within hours but then experienced a sharp decline. The market cap is currently sitting at just $24 million.

The OpenSea Foundation announced the launch of the SEA token. The token will likely be airdropped to users with historical OpenSea activity, not just recent engagement. A unique aspect of this claim is that U.S. users will also be able to claim their share of the potential airdrop. There are no further details yet, and the timing has not been publicly announced. All updates will be communicated exclusively through their official channels.

After the Pudgy Penguins launched their PENGU token in December, the NFT series Doodles has now also announced the launch of its official token, DOOD, which will be launched on Solana.

Digital Asset Fund Flows: ETH With More Inflows Than BTC

Last week, digital asset investment products saw inflows totaling $1.3 billion, marking the fifth consecutive week of net inflows after a single outflow week at the beginning of the year. Last week's inflows were almost double those of the previous week – showcasing a return of interest from institutional investors in the digital asset space.

And guess what? We mentioned it last week already – Ethereum is continuing to steal the show from Bitcoin. Ethereum investment products saw $793 million in net inflows last week, while Bitcoin products saw $407 million. Interesting!

This week continues in a similar fashion. While Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows every single day this week – three of the four days showing net outflows in the three-digit-million range –Ethereum spot ETFs actually saw low net inflows on two of the four days while also showing a small net outflow in total so far this week.

In other news, Mike Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, said at the Ondo Summit that, with the new leadership of the SEC in place, many cryptocurrency companies are expected to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq in May or June this year. Additionally, the Trump family project WLFI and Ondo Finance announced a strategic partnership to promote the adoption of RWA and bring traditional finance on-chain.  

Market Sentiment: Fear/Neutral For Crypto And Stocks

This week, AAII members turned rather bearish again. The number of AAII members saying they feel bearish on the stock market for the next six months is sitting at 47.3 percent, while the number of people feeling bullish is down to 28.4 percent again – interesting!

When looking at the crypto fear and greed index, the CMC fear and greed index, and the CNN fear and greed index for the stock market, all are painting a similar picture: neutral levels. However, the CMC index is still in fear territory, where the other two were as well during this past week.

It’s interesting to note that the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are sitting just below a new all-time high, yet many market participants seem either fearful or neutral in sentiment. Is there room left to the upside until traders turn greedy again? Time will tell.

The crypto market sentiment is a little easier to interpret. Altcoins are down significantly from their recent highs, with some even correcting more than 80 percent to the downside. So, it should not come as a surprise that market participants are questioning their stance and feeling fearful. While Bitcoin is still sitting just below $100’000, it also makes sense that quite a few market participants are more on the neutral or greedy side, leaving us in this neutral zone for now.

Other Relevant News

• Strategy has acquired 7’633 BTC for $742.4 million at $97’255 per bitcoin. – Link
• Tesla made $600 million in Bitcoin profits in the fourth quarter of last year. – Link
• GameStop is considering investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. – Link

Looking Ahead: How is Bitcoin Holding Up vs. the S&P 500

The U.S. stock market is trading close to new all-time highs, and crypto is not able to profit from the positive momentum – at least not thus far. Let’s look at the BTC chart compared to the S&P 500 below. While Bitcoin is in a sideways range again when compared to the S&P 500, just as it was last year around March and April, the structure is slightly different. Last spring, Bitcoin was making lower lows against the S&P 500, whereas at the current levels, Bitcoin is still making higher lows, as the two dotted lines in the chart highlight. A break to the upside with a new higher high could indicate that Bitcoin is on track to continue its upward momentum, while a break of the lows could indicate further downside movement.

Below, you can find some of the key data releases and events to watch out for next week.

Sunday, 16 February 2025

• Japan – GDP

Tuesday, 18 February 2025

• France, Canada – Inflation data

Wednesday, 19 February 2025

• Great Britain – Inflation data

Thursday, 20 February 2025

• U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims
• Japan – Inflation data