BTC rides the seesaw, XRP ETF drama, and SOL & AVAX performance analysis
Nov 17, 2023 - 5 min read
What happened last week
BTC rides the seesaw, XRP ETF drama, and SOL & AVAX performance analysis
This week seems to end slightly lower than where its started, BTC was ranging between $35’000 and $38’000, reminiscent of a see saw. Given the CPI print this week which came in below expectations and the current ETF optimism, it is somewhat surprising that we seem to close the week lower. The most stirring headline this week was probably the bogus XRP ETF listing, reminiscent of a 2 year old story about Walmart supposedly starting to accept LTC as payment, that also turned out to be bogus. TIA remained resilient throughout the week, Bitcoin Suisse also saw buy side skewed flow throughout the week.
This morning, the cryptocurrency market saw a pullback, eroding some of the gains made earlier in the week. This appears to have been influenced by trends in the equity markets, particularly in Asia, where stocks had a notably poor performance. The timing suggests that the Asian markets may have been the catalyst for the latest round of liquidations in the crypto space. For a change, Solana was the worst performing bluechip, whereas Avalanche continued its streak as the top performer.
Looking at the SOL/USD chart, it's clear that Solana has had an outstanding year, with its value at the peak having surged to an 800% increase year-to-date. However, despite the lack of specific news to explain today's drop, it might be reasoned that the downturn is a natural market correction, perhaps accentuated by the significant holdings of SOL by FTX on their balance sheet.
Switching to the AVAX/USD chart, we observe a respectable 130% YTD gain. It's not as dramatic as Solana's rise, but it's still noteworthy. AVAX's recent outperformance may be attributed to the announcement of a partnership with JPMorgan. Specifically, Onyx by J.P Morgan and Apollo Global have announced a collaborative effort under the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) Project Guardian which will be using Avalanche to facilitate automated asset management, which could be driving investor optimism.
Our take
As for the ETFs, the deadline for the first of two ETFs is today, and with the SEC having already postponed the decision on one yesterday afternoon, it's anticipated that the second ETF, named Franklin, will likely see a similar delay. Additionally, the BitGo CEO has shared expectations of further ETF rejections. Amid these developments, it’s also important to mention that BlackRock has made a move by filing for an Ethereum spot ETF. FOMC wise, expectations remain very much in favor of a static rate for December. European figures are due today as well, Inflation Rate and CPI with 3 ECB speakers as well, Nagel has said that we may not have seen the peak in interest rates yet. Later today a good handful of Fed speakers are also due so should be interesting if they will confirm Nagels comments. Looking at European money markets, there are signs that traders are pricing in 100 BPS of rate cuts by December 2024.
The week ahead
Monday, 20 November 2023
- Germany PPI
- ECB Speech
Tuesday, 21 November 2023
- ECB Speech
- FOMC Minutes
Wednesday, 22 November 2023
- US Jobless Claims
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence
Thursday, 23 November 2023
- Eurozone HCOB PMI
- ECB Speech
Friday, 24 November 2023
- Japanese Inflation figures
- Japanese PMI
- Singapore Industrial Production
- Germany GDP
- ECB Lagarde Speech
- 2 additional ECB Speeches
Sunday, 26 November 2023
- OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting