U.S. Elections Around The Corner, Pump.Fun On The Rise & Hackers Attack U.S. Government Wallet

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This Week’s Top Stories

“Pump.Fun has generated total revenue of $162 million and has sold SOL worth $78.7 million so far” – Tuesday, 22 October

• The Solana token issuer platform Pump.Fun is approaching 1 million SOL in lifetime fees, with over 2.5 million tokens launched by its users since its debut in early March this year. The recent memecoin mania, especially around AI memecoins like GOAT, has driven a surge in new token issuance, with more than 30’000 tokens released on Monday alone.

“Microsoft will be voting about "Assessment of Investing in Bitcoin" in a shareholder meeting” – Thursday, 24 October

• In an SEC filing late Thursday afternoon, Microsoft disclosed that the "Assessment of Investing in Bitcoin" is currently a proposed item and will be up for a vote at the shareholder meeting on December 10. Microsoft’s board recommends voting against this proposal, stating that they consider it unnecessary, as Microsoft's management already carefully evaluates this topic.

“Hackers steal $20 million from U.S. government wallet” – Thursday, 24 October

• Approximately $20 million worth of cryptocurrency appears to have been stolen from wallets belonging to the U.S. government, according to Arkham Intelligence. While the suspect has not yet been identified, and details on how the breach occurred remain unclear, the suspicious account’s behavior suggests this was a malicious operation. The hacker’s activity can be tracked here.

A Quick Crypto Overview: A Turbulent Week With Ups And Downs

The last week ended on a positive note, with Bitcoin and the broader crypto market trading higher over the weekend and closing last week at multi-month highs. Bitcoin closed its weekly candle at $69’000, marking its highest weekly close since early June this year. The total crypto market closed around $2.33 trillion on Sunday evening.

Bitcoin dominance continues its uptrend, currently sitting above 59 percent, up 3 percent in October.

As we near the end of October, looking at this month’s outperformers among the top 200 coins, it’s safe to say that “Uptober” has come true for various cryptocurrencies—especially memecoins and AI memecoins. SPX6900 is up more than 1’700 percent in October, followed by VIRTUAL, up 444 percent, and GIGA, up 172 percent.

Chart of the Week: Memecoins

As mentioned, memecoins have experienced a great "Uptober" so far, outperforming the broader crypto market by a large margin. The chart below shows the performance of Vaneck’s Memecoin Index, which covers the largest digital assets classified as memecoins (with its top components being Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe), versus the 21Shares Bitcoin Suisse Crypto Index, which includes Bitcoin and Ethereum, weighted by their market capitalization.

While memecoins have been the hot topic in recent weeks, Justin Sun, at the time of writing, has just announced a "Tron meme" in a post on X. Memecoin traders are cautiously monitoring this, as Justin Sun is generally known to join such trends at very late stages.

What’s Happening On-Chain? U.S. Elections: A Whales Game

With the U.S. elections a little more than a week away, the activity on Polymarket is showing large activity from whales, as a user has just withdrawn $3 million USDC from OKX to buy 4.4 million “Yes” shares that Donald Trump will win the elections. Donald Trump’s chances have reached 64 percent this week and the total volume is currently sitting at a staggering $2.5 billion in total. Just yesterday, another user placed a $2 million bet on Kamala Harris, boosting her probability over 40 percent for a short period of time.

When looking at Polymarket, users are betting on a Republican sweep, with the Republican party winning the house, senate and the oval office. Chances of such a Republican sweep are currently trading at 47 percent.

Digital Asset Fund Flows: Best Week Since July

Last week digital asset investment products saw huge inflows totaling $2.2 billion, making it the week with the largest inflows since July. Bitcoin accounted for more than $2.1 billion, followed by Ethereum with $58 million of net inflows. The large appetite was mainly seen in the U.S., with other countries such as Switzerland, Sweden or Canada with net outflows last week. This renewed optimism likely stems from growing expectations of a Republican victory in the upcoming U.S. elections, as they are generally viewed as more supportive of digital assets.

The positive trend continued this week, with the Bitcoin spot ETFs showing more than $600 million of net inflows so far. BlackRock’s IBIT saw two days with more than $300 million of net inflows. The appetite for Ethereum’s spot ETFs continues to be small, with moderate net outflows so far this week.

Market Sentiment: AAII Members Drop In Bullishness

When looking at the survey from AAII, their members have not been this neutral and bearish since May this year, with only 37.7 percent saying they feel bullish for the stock market in the coming six months. This comes after a peak in bullishness in mid-September, when more than 50 percent were bullish. This drop in bullishness coincides with the stock market’s correction at the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up 1 percent from its Wednesday low. Today’s performance will likely be closely monitored by many participants.

For the crypto market, market sentiment is unchanged from last week, sitting in greed territory at 72.

Other Relevant News

• BlackRock is promoting its new money market digital token BUIDL as collateral for crypto derivatives trading. – Link
• The U.S. SEC has approved the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) to list multiple spot Bitcoin ETF options trading. – Link
• Vitalik Buterin published "Possible futures of the Ethereum protocol, part 3: The Scourge. – Link
• Payments company Stripe has acquired stablecoin platform Bridge for $1.1 billion. – Link
• The Russian state and the nation’s biggest crypto miner BitRiver have unveiled plans to build mining data centers in BRICS nations. – Link
• MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor has been criticized by the community for his recent suggestion to hand over Bitcoin custody to big banks. – Link
• The Vietnamese government is committed to making Vietnam a leading regional blockchain technology research, application and innovation center by 2030. – Link
• Tesla released its third quarter financial report for 2024. The company did not sell its $184 million worth of cryptocurrencies this quarter. – Link
• Denmark is set to pioneer an unprecedented tax reform by introducing a tax on unrealized capital gains for cryptocurrencies, starting January 1, 2026. – Link
• Kraken plans to launch a blockchain early next year for decentralized applications that allow for trading, borrowing and lending of tokens without intermediaries. – Link

Looking Ahead: How Will This Resolve?

With Bitcoin trading around the $70’000 level and the U.S. elections just 10 days away, market participants are eagerly awaiting the resolution of this multi-month range. Bitcoin peaked in April at roughly $74’000 and has since been fluctuating within a defined range. Currently, the range low is just below $49’000. The question is: will Bitcoin break out to the upside, reaching a new all-time high, or is it losing momentum and set to trend toward the range low—or potentially even break below it?

As we have previously outlined, historically, U.S. elections have often been a positive catalyst for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. This year is special, however, as Bitcoin has become a prominent topic in the election, which could lead to surprising price movements.

Currently, crypto traders appear to be betting on a Trump victory. Given his positive stance on crypto, many anticipate strong performance if he is elected. Conversely, with Kamala Harris, market sentiment is less certain, and participants may reduce their risk exposure if she wins. Time is ticking, and we’ll soon have clarity. Stay tuned!

Below, you can find some of the key data releases and events to watch out for next week.

Tuesday, 29 October

• U.S. – JOLTS Job Openings
• Switzerland – SNB Vice Chairman Schlegel Speaks

Wednesday, 30 October

• Switzerland – SNB Vice Chairman Schlegel Speaks
• Switzerland – SNB Press Conference
• Eurozone – GDP
• U.S. – GDP
• U.S. – PCE Prices
• Japan – BoJ Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, 31 October

• Eurozone – CPI, Core CPI
• Eurozone – Unemployment Rate
• U.S. – PCE Price Index, Core PCE Price Index

Friday, 1 November

• Switzerland – CPI
• U.S. – Unemployment Rate
• U.S. – Nonfarm Payrolls