BTC below $100k, Government Shutdown End & Large ETF Outflows

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This Week’s Top Stories

“U.S. Government Shutdown ends after a record 43 days.” – Wednesday, 12 November 2025 

• On Wednesday evening, U.S. President Trump signed a funding bill to end the longest government shutdown in history, pushing the next funding deadline to January. The House approved the bill earlier on Wednesday with almost all Republicans and fewer than ten Democrats voting for it.
• The new funding bill gives federal workers back pay and keeps the government open until the 30th of January 2026.
• Looking back at the 43-day shutdown, Kevin Hassett, the director of Trump's National Economic Council, estimated Thursday that the shutdown cost about $15 billion per week and that 60’000 non-federal workers lost their jobs because of the economic impacts.

“Odds for a rate cut in December fall to 53 percent on Polymarket as key economic data will not be released.” – Wednesday, 12 November 2025 

• On Polymarket, the odds for a 25 bps interest rate cut in December dropped from 72 percent to 53 percent this week, as it became clear that key economic data such as the U.S. inflation data and important job numbers will not be released for the month of October. The U.S. government shutdown has widened the split within the Fed. The odds for “no change” increased from 26 to 46 percent this week.
• On the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds for a 25 bps rate cut are currently at 52 percent while chances for a pause in December are 47.9 percent. The two platforms, Polymarket and the FedWatch Tool, are now better aligned than at the beginning of the week, when odds for a rate cut on Polymarket were significantly higher.

A Quick Crypto Overview: BTC below $100’000

Yesterday, BTC closed the day below $100’000 for the first time since May and Bitcoin is currently trading at a six-month low around $97’000, while Ethereum is currently holding the $3’200 mark, following the lowest daily close since July this year. Ethereum has yet to make a new low, as it is currently still holding above the November 9 low. 

The total crypto market cap is currently down 25 percent from its early October high, making this the third largest correction since early 2024, while the other two large corrections in spring 2024 and at the beginning of 2025 both dragged the market down roughly 40 percent. If this correction follows the path of the other two, the total crypto market cap would bottom around the $2.5 trillion-level, which would mean that we are currently only halfway through, and another 20 percent drop is to follow. 

Investors are likely eyeing the BTC chart since a reclaim of the $100’000-level would be a bullish sign for a potential move higher, while holding and acceptance below this psychological level would likely be interpreted as a bearish sign for further downward movement. 

While most coins are down double-digit percentage points with DASH (minus 44 percent) and ICP (minus 30 percent) leading the losers, UNI (plus 36 percent) is leading the weekly winners after the recent fee switch announcement this week. 

Chart of the Week: BTC vs Gold – New Yearly Low

The relationship between Bitcoin and gold has been talked about a lot and there are some constructive arguments that Bitcoin has been following gold on its upward path with some latency, often during consolidation phases of gold after a strong push to the upside. While gold is now consolidating and hovering around the $4’100- to $4’200-level, Bitcoin has actually reached a new yearly low against gold this week, as the chart below shows. It looks like Bitcoin is aiming for its August 2024 low against gold (20), which could mean that another 10 percent correction is around the corner.

What’s Happening Onchain? Coinbase ICO Platform, UniSwap Fee-Switch & Lighter’s $68M Raise 

Coinbase introduced its new token sale platform just weeks after its Echo and Sonar acquisition. The platform is projected to host around one token sale per month, and investors will be able to submit purchase requests during a one-week period using Circle’s stablecoin USDC. Participants will need to complete KYC and compliance checks to take part. The first ICO will start next week on Monday, 17 November, with the L1 blockchain Monad doing a public sale on the platform with 7.5 percent of the total supply reserved for the sale at a token price of 0.025 dollars at a fully diluted valuation of $2.5 billion. 

As mentioned earlier, Hayden Adams submitted the proposal “UNIfication,” which aims to turn on Uniswap protocol fees and use these fees to burn UNI and also includes a one-time retroactive burn of roughly 100 million UNI tokens. Uniswap is the largest spot DEX and has been around since 2018, generating around $1 billion in fees per year. This mechanism would finally allow the protocol to pass some of the value generated to token holders. Over the past month, Uniswap has accrued $222 million in fees, bringing the protocol's annualized fees to over $2 billion. In total, the platform has generated cumulative fees of $5.4 billion. 

In the world of perp DEXs, Lighter has raised $68 million in a funding round led by Founders Fund and other investors such as Robinhood, valuing the decentralized perpetual trading venue at $1.5 billion. As mentioned in previous Weekly Wraps, Lighter is an Ethereum L2 network which has gained a lot of traction over the past few months, as many investors are speculating on an airdrop in light of the TGE planned for Q4 this year. 

Digital Asset Fund Flows: Second Largest Outflow Day for Bitcoin Spot ETFs in History 

Last week, digital asset investment products saw net outflows of roughly $1.2 billion, led by Bitcoin with $930 million and Ethereum with $440 million, while Solana saw net inflows of $120 million, bringing its net inflows over the past nine weeks to $2.1 billion. 

This week started with a large net inflow day on Tuesday of $524 million for the Bitcoin spot ETFs but has since shifted to another potential week with net outflows, as the BTC spot ETFs saw almost $900 million of net outflows yesterday, making it the second largest net outflow day for the Bitcoin spot ETFs in history. 

While institutional flows are currently slowing down, with DATs and ETFs not buying up large amounts of supply anymore, there is news from the governmental adoption of crypto this week. The Czech National Bank announced that it has established a pilot project digital asset portfolio worth $1 million. The portfolio includes Bitcoin, a USD stablecoin and a tokenized deposit and serves as a test to potentially include Bitcoin on its balance sheet. And the Czech National Bank is not alone. Kazakhstan is also establishing a national crypto reserve fund worth up to $1 billion and will partly use seized assets but will also invest in ETFs and crypto related companies. The idea is to avoid direct exposure to spot crypto, and the goal is to launch this fund by early next year. 

Market Sentiment: Extremely Fearful Crypto Markets 

We are in extremely fearful territories at 16 for the second week in a row and are close to the yearly low when it comes to sentiment. At the end of February, the Fear and Greed Index reached 10 and spent almost two months in fearful levels before recovering alongside the price. 

Historically, since the bottom in 2022, sentiment in the crypto market has only been this bad a couple of times, in August 2024 and in spring 2025, and both periods coincided with bottom structures in price. While this gives some insights, it remains to be seen whether this time is different or whether the current price levels also offer some support for a move back above the magical $100’000-level. 

As predicted last week, the AAII investment survey shows a huge jump towards the bearish side this week, with 49.1 percent of the members feeling bearish for the coming six months.

Other Relevant News 

• Strategy priced its 10 percent Series A Perpetual Stream Preferred Stock (STRE), issuing 7.75 million shares at €80 each to raise about €620 million, $715 million. – Link 
• FTX creditor representative Sunil said the exchange has completed three payout rounds totaling about $7.1 billion, with the next payout round expected in January 2026. – Link 

Looking Ahead: $100’000 the line in the sand 

All eyes are now on the $100’000-level. Even though it is more a psychological level than a technical one, it will be important to watch for a potential reclaim of $100’000 for a relief bounce, or acceptance below this level for further downward pressure. With yesterday’s historic outflow day from the spot ETFs and the peak fear levels in the markets, a bounce to the upside would make sense, but the market can be brutal, and since Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq remains high at 0.8 with a heavy downside bias, investors are also watching the U.S. stock indices very closely, as they started to drop in yesterday’s trading session. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are showing first signs of a downtrend, but it is too soon to tell whether the U.S. stock indices are actually starting a potentially longer correction phase, since the market is still holding above last week’s low. 

With the shutdown now over, the attention of market participants is likely to shift toward the December FOMC meeting, where, as mentioned earlier, odds for a 25-bps rate cut have dropped significantly this week, which has likely caused the latest drop in the markets. Any positive remarks in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC, which will take place on December 10, could renew optimism for a 25-bps rate cut and calm the markets in the coming weeks. 

Below, you can find some of the key data releases and events to watch out for next week. 

Sunday, 16 November 2025 

Japan – GDP 

Monday, 17 November 2025 

Switzerland – GDP 

Wednesday, 19 November 2025 

Great Britain – CPI, Core CPI 

Eurozone – CPI, Core CPI 

USA – FOMC Meeting Minutes 

Thursday, 20 November 2025 

Japan – CPI, Core CPI 

Friday, 21 November 2025 

Switzerland – SNB Vice Chairman Schlegel Speaks