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This Week’s Top Stories

“Fed rate cut, while the median for 2026 remains unchanged, for now.” – Wednesday, 10 December 2025 

• On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates again, despite objections from several key Fed officials who raised concerns about sticky inflation, which is still above 3 percent year-over-year. The decision drew three dissents, the highest number since September 2019, with two officials opposing the rate cut and Miran even arguing for a 50 basis point cut.
• Looking ahead to the coming year, Fed officials’ expectation of just one cut heavily contradicts President Trump’s vision and demands for massive rate cuts throughout the year. Trump's pick for the new Fed Chair is becoming increasingly important. While the Fed Chair only has one vote and cannot unilaterally veto any decision, the Chair certainly has the ability to influence other members and try to bring them on board.

A Quick Crypto Overview: U.S. Stock Indices at ATHs, Gold is up & Crypto is Mainly Flat

Bitcoin is trading at $92’000 at the time of writing, with Ethereum above $3’200. Ethereum is up almost 10 percent against Bitcoin in December, while the broader crypto market has been trading flat over the past couple of weeks, seemingly putting in a bottom in terms of price action after multiple weeks of downward pressure. 

While it is a positive sign that the market is not declining further, crypto market participants are certainly jealous of U.S. stockholders or gold bugs, as U.S. stock indices are trading at all-time highs and gold is also up 10 percent since the end of October, approaching a possible new all-time high. 

The U.S. stock market reacted very positively to the FOMC meeting and Powell’s comments, expecting the Fed to run it hot next year, giving in to the pressure of President Trump. It seems that many market participants are calling the Fed’s bluff on the expected one rate cut for 2026 from Fed officials. 

The Russell 2000 is up more than 13 percent since the end of November, a clear sign that the market is expecting more cuts and stimulus in the coming year.

Chart of the Week: This Week we want to highlight the Bitcoin Suisse Outlook 2026 

We are not focusing on one chart this week, but on the entire Bitcoin Suisse Outlook 2026, which includes a series of very interesting and insightful charts, of course. As always, we aimed to assemble a fine selection of 12 bold, novel, and non-consensus predictions for the coming year. Highlight predictions include a steepening of the Fed’s cutting path, with rates tracking down to 2.0 percent; a weakening of the Tether and Circle duopoly as yield and distribution reshape the stack; and a cross-asset class bull run in 2026. 

We also predict that U.S. entry will catalyze Polymarket as the clear market leader in prediction markets, and that ETH will reach new all-time highs, approaching $8’000. You can read the full report here.

What’s Happening Onchain? Will 2026 be the Year of ICOs? 

SEC Chair Paul Atkins said this week that ICOs tied to network tokens, digital collectibles, or digital tools should not be treated as securities and thus fall outside the jurisdiction of the SEC and instead be subject to oversight by the CFTC. His comments suggest that a new era of ICOs might be upon us. While many ICOs back in the day were conducted in Switzerland and other countries outside the U.S., this time the ICO craze could take place in the U.S. 

Atkins again referred to a token taxonomy he rolled out last month, in which he broke down the crypto industry into four general token categories. Of those four categories, Atkins argued that three categories (network tokens, digital collectibles, and digital tools) should not be considered securities in and of themselves. On Tuesday, Atkins said ICOs that fall under those three token categories should also be considered non-security transactions. The only category of token the SEC Chair said his agency should regulate, when it comes to ICOs, is tokenized securities. 

In other news, Circle has partnered with Aleo to launch a private version of its stablecoin called USDCx, which aims to obscure transaction histories. While the new stablecoin won’t be truly private – every transaction will include a compliance record that Circle can access if law enforcement or other authorities inquire about specific transactions – it enables “banking-level privacy” for institutional settlements and large-value transactions. This is important because many businesses and individuals do not want to reveal their revenues or business intelligence. 

Digital Asset Fund Flows: Another Week of Inflows 

Last week, digital asset investment products saw net inflows of $716 million, continuing their positive streak for another week. Bitcoin led the pack with $350 million, followed by XRP with $245 million and Chainlink with $52 million. Ethereum, on the other hand, disappointed with $39 million in net inflows last week, while Solana saw only $3 million in inflows. 

This week started very positively, with the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana spot ETFs all seeing net inflows on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, followed by small outflows yesterday. 

Market Sentiment: Crypto Market is Still Fearful, While Stocks are Neutral 

The crypto Fear and Greed Index continues to stay in fearful territory (29), while the CNN Stock Market Fear and Greed Index is back in neutral territory (48) after weeks at fear and even extreme fear levels. It’s remarkable that market participants are not greedier, given that U.S. indices are trading at all-time highs. This is a good sign for more potential upside, both in terms of sentiment and possibly also price. 

We mentioned last week that we saw a big jump in bullishness among AAII members. This week, members continued to stay bullish, with 44 percent feeling bullish about the coming six months, while 30 percent remain bearish. 

Other Relevant News 

• Strategy has acquired 10’624 BTC for ~$962.7 million. — Link  

• Coinbase Protocol Specialist Andrew stated that Coinbase is expanding its native support for Solana. – Link 

• American Bitcoin has acquired an additional 416 BTC. – Link 

• BitMine Immersion Technologies purchased 138’452 ETH over the past week. BitMine also holds 193 BTC, $1 billion in cash. – Link  

• BlackRock has officially filed for a staked Ethereum ETF, marking its first formal move toward SEC approval. – Link  

Looking Ahead: Christmas Rally? 

With the FOMC meeting and interest rate decision out of the way, we are looking at the last week before Christmas, with U.S. inflation data coming out next Friday. Are we going to see a Christmas rally? The U.S. stock market and gold certainly are giving Christmas rally vibes, and the crypto market is once more in a position where it could catch up with the U.S. stock market, or perhaps it front-ran a Christmas sell-off. 

ETF flows started to pick up again this week. There has been some positive news from major U.S. financial players opening up access to Bitcoin and other crypto assets over the past few weeks, and many market participants capitulated in November due to the continued downward pressure in the crypto market. Given these circumstances, a rally toward the end of the year could be on the table if U.S. inflation data comes in soft next week. 

Below, you can find some of the key data releases and events to watch out for next week. 

Sunday, 14 December 2025 

China – Unemployment Rate 

Monday, 15 December 2025 

Switzerland – PPI 

Tuesday, 16 December 2025 

USA – Nonfarm Payrolls, Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate 

Wednesday, 17 December 2025 

Eurozone – CPI, Core CPI 

Switzerland – SNB Quarterly Bulletin 

Thursday, 18 December 2025 

Great Britain – BoE Interest Rate Decision 

Eurozone – ECB Interest Rate Decision 

USA – CPI, Core CPI 

Japan – BoJ Interest Rate Decision 

Friday, 19 December 2025 

USA – Core PCE Price Index, PCE Price Index