The Weekly Wrap: Geopolitics, Bitcoin Bill in Florida & Morgan Stanley’s Digital Assets Push

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This Week’s Top Stories

“$47B in inflows for global digital assets in 2025, just shy of the 2024 record.” – Tuesday, 6 January 2026 

• In 2025, digital assets saw $47.2B in net inflows, staying on track and ending the year just shy of the 2024 record. Interestingly, Bitcoin saw a sharp 35 percent decline in flows, bringing in $26.9B compared to $41.6B in 2024, while Ethereum flows more than doubled from $5.3B in 2024 to $12.7B in 2025. XRP and Solana also saw large increases in flows, both attracting around $3.5B each in 2025.

“MSCI decides to keep DATs in Indexes.” – Monday, 5 January 2026 

• MSCI announced this week that, for the time being, the current index treatment of DATs will remain unchanged, following months of uncertainty for crypto-related equities, particularly the largest DAT, Strategy. MSCI also signaled that the exclusion of Strategy and other DATs remains on the table, but that more time is needed to determine the appropriate criteria for excluding non-operating companies that are primarily investment-oriented entities.

“Florida lawmaker filed a bill to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve managed by the state to fight inflation.” – Thursday, 8 January 2026 

• Florida House Member John Snyder filed a bill to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the state, which would allow the state’s chief financial officer to invest up to 10 percent of key public funds in Bitcoin, Bitcoin ETFs, and other cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization of at least $500B. Currently, only Bitcoin meets this criterion. If voted on and signed into law, the bill would take effect on July 1, 2026.

A Quick Crypto Overview: 2025 Ended Red but Bitcoin is Currently Holding Steady

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have essentially been trading more or less sideways since 21 November 2025, when Bitcoin bottomed out around the $80K level. The November bottom came in slightly higher than the April 2025 bottom, when Bitcoin traded as low as $74.5K. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $91K, up 13 percent over the past 50 days. 

Bitcoin closed the year 2025 with a yearly loss of 6.6 percent, and the total crypto market cap ended the year down almost 8 percent, with Ethereum showing a yearly performance of minus 11 percent. Thinking back to the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, this price action has certainly disappointed many market participants, as sentiment going into the year was beyond bullish, with the new Trump administration laying the tracks for a full-steam crypto embrace and adoption. 

Contrarian investors certainly had an easy job last year taking the other side of this trade. Going into 2026, however, sentiment has shifted, and many crypto market participants are uncertain about the new year and what it might bring for our beloved coins. While 2025 certainly surprised and disappointed to the downside, at least in terms of price action, 2026 might flip the switch and surprise to the upside. The groundwork has been done, crypto legislation is moving forward like never before, and as mentioned above, institutional money is pouring in. Once the OGs are done selling and supply dries up, Bitcoin appears to be in an interesting spot. 

The alternative scenario, however, is that we are currently on the brink of a bear market. In this case, Bitcoin losing the $80K level and trading toward April’s $74K region would likely indicate a more muted period for crypto assets over the next few months. 

Chart of the Week: Tokenization Market has 10x’d Over the Past 2 Years

At the beginning of 2024, the total RWA value of all tokenized assets, according to rwa.xyz, was roughly $2B. Fast forward two years, and we are now sitting at $19B in tokenized assets, leaving the tokenization market with a clean 10x trade over the past two years. In 2025 alone, the total tokenization market increased from $5.6B to $19B within a year, showcasing one of crypto’s most promising and fastest-growing market segments at the moment. 

It is important to note that stablecoins are not included in these numbers. Including stablecoins, the tokenization market is north of $300B, after having crossed this mark for the first time last year. Excluding stablecoins, U.S. Treasury debt makes up most of the market share, followed by commodities, institutional alternative funds, private credit, and public equity.

What’s Happening Onchain? Web3 Gaming & Polymarket’s Role in Geopolitics 

Remember web3 gaming? It has been awfully quiet around the GameFi sector in 2025, with funding down more than 55 percent year over year and some highly anticipated launches falling short of expectations. Nonetheless, studios such as Mythical Games continue to generate significant revenue while leveraging blockchain technology. Mythical Games launched Pudgy Party together with Pudgy Penguins in the summer of 2025, and with the new GTA scheduled for release in Q4 2026, web3 gaming could be in for a rebound this year. Stablecoin adoption could also accelerate crypto adoption in gaming, as nano transactions, global payment rails, and engagement-based rewards become easier. 

In light of the recent geopolitical tensions in Venezuela, Polymarket made headlines as three wallets placed large bets on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being captured, earning more than $600K combined. All three wallets were created and funded a couple of days before the event and activated shortly beforehand. The wallets did not place bets on anything else, and many market participants have been speculating whether this could be the result of insider trading by individuals with prior knowledge of the event. 

Digital Asset Fund Flows: ETF Flows & Morgan Stanley’s Digital Asset Push 

While the first two days of the new year looked promising in terms of Bitcoin spot ETF flows, the tide has turned and the products in the U.S. are currently flat on the first week, after attracting more than $1.1B in the first two days. It looks a little better for the Ethereum spot ETFs which are currently sitting on roughly $200M in inflows for the first week in 2026, but the last two trading days were also accompanied by outflows.  

At the beginning of this week, Morgan Stanley made headlines with its new digital asset push by filing for Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum spot ETFs with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. It is certainly a positive sign to see the first major U.S. bank entering the crypto ETF market, and others will likely follow over the coming months. 

Market Sentiment: Crypto Markets are Back in Fear Levels 

Crypto market sentiment has dropped back into fear territory this week, as Bitcoin rejected the $94.5K level and is currently trading around $90K again, while having essentially traded more or less sideways for weeks now. Market participants appear cautious and increasingly concerned about the coming weeks and months. 

In TradFi, market sentiment is back in neutral territory but has been flip-flopping between fear and neutral over the past few weeks, after spending some time in fear and even extreme fear territory in November. AAII members continue to feel bullish on the stock market over the coming six months, with 42.5 percent being bullish, compared to 30 percent feeling bearish. A further 27.5 percent stated that they are taking a neutral stance. 

Other Relevant News 

• Polymarket and Parcl announced a partnership to launch real estate prediction markets powered by Parcl’s housing price indices. – Link 

• Polymarket has announced an exclusive partnership with Dow Jones Media. – Link 

• World Liberty Financial said that one of its entities has filed a de novo application with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to seek a national trust bank charter. – Link 

• Hardware wallet maker Ledger suffered another data breach via its payment processor Global-e, exposing some customers’ personal information, including names and contact details. – Link 

Looking Ahead: Geopolitical Tensions, U.S. Midterms & $200B U.S. Mortgage Bond Buy 

Over the past few days, there have been numerous comments from Trump regarding his decisions in Venezuela and how his plans for the coming months could include further actions that may lead to an escalation in the global geopolitical situation. He commented on moving forward and becoming more concrete regarding his plans to buy Greenland, also spoke about potential military actions against drug cartels on Mexican soil, and recently stated that it is up to China what happens in Taiwan. Such comments are currently spooking many market participants and are resulting in shaky price action without a clear trend. 

While the outlook for 2026 and our Bitcoin Suisse house view remain constructive, it is important to remain aware of these geopolitical risks and therefore stay disciplined and cautious, as any escalation could spook markets in the short term. The midterm elections are inching closer, and should Republicans lose control of both the Senate and the House in November, this outcome could trigger significant political shifts, with many currently favorable policies potentially being reversed. 

While it is of course too soon to tell, with the midterms still eleven months away, this is nevertheless something to keep in mind, as the Trump administration will likely make a strong effort to ensure that the American public remains supportive of the Republican Party when the time comes. Trump’s recent comments about a $200B mortgage bond buy as part of his housing push to bring down housing costs ahead of the midterm elections represent one of the first such measures from the current U.S. administration. 

In terms of price action, market participants continue to wait for a short or midterm trend to emerge, as Bitcoin and most other crypto assets are currently trading sideways without a clear direction. Bitcoin is currently holding the $90K level but losing it would likely open the door to price action toward the $80K level seen in November. Holding $90K and trending higher could bring Bitcoin back toward the $100K level, which would likely act as a psychological resistance level, with many participants watching closely. 

Below, you can find some of the key data releases and events to watch out for next week. 

Tuesday, 13 January 2026 

USA – CPI, Core CPI 

Wednesday, 14 January 2026 

USA – PPI, Core PPI 

USA – Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales 

Thursday, 15 January 2026 

USA – Initial Jobless Claims