The Longest U.S. Government Shutdown, Prediction Markets, Privacy Coins & a Constructive Outlook into 2026

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This Week’s Top Stories

“The Longest Government Shutdown in U.S. History.” – Wednesday, 5 November 2025 

• On Wednesday, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown entered its 36th full day, officially making it the longest in U.S. history. It overtook the previous record held by the most recent shutdown, which occurred during President Trump’s first term in December 2018.
• Why is this important for the crypto market? The shutdown has significant effects on market dynamics, as it is trapping liquidity that would otherwise flow into the banking system. The Treasury General Account (TGA) sits well above target, and excess liquidity is locked up until the government reopens, acting as a subtle but persistent drag on markets.

“Google to roll out Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets data in Google Search results.” – Thursday, 6 November 2025 

• Yesterday, Google Finance announced that it will integrate data from the two prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, directly into their Google Search platform in the coming weeks. This means you will be able to ask questions about future events and receive probabilities from the prediction markets. The two platforms continue to make headlines and are moving into the mainstream Web2 playing field at lightning speed.

A Quick Crypto Overview: The Crypto Markets took another Hit this Week, but why?

It was another rough week for crypto investors, with most coins down double-digit percentage points on the week. There were a few outliers, such as ZEC, ICP, FIL, XTZ, and DASH. These are all projects from previous cycles that are seemingly experiencing their own mini cycle at the moment. In the following section, we would like to highlight some of the possible reasons behind the current market weakness. 

Unwind of the 10/10 Crash

The recent crash and liquidation event on the 10th of October still holds sway over the current market dynamics. After such large open interest wipeouts and liquidation events, with this being the largest one in history by a huge margin, it is normal that the market needs time to settle and that market participants are taking a step back and reducing exposure. 

When we think back to historic liquidation events, it often took weeks or even months for some casualties to surface, and it will likely be the same now. Chances are high that some funds running spot long and perp short strategies were hit with ADLs (Auto-Deleveraging) on decentralized perp exchanges and are now in the process of unwinding their spot long positions to return to neutral positioning. This process might take more time to fully unwind, and some negative news might yet emerge. 

ETF Flows and DAT Accumulation have dried up

In addition to the risk-averse positioning of crypto-native investors after the 10th of October, the flows for Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have dried up at the same time. The data shows that the institutional bid disappeared after the 10/10 crash, with the remaining days of October being marked by rather large net outflows on most days for both the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. Bitcoin and Ethereum’s correlation to the spot ETF flows is high, and while this has a negative effect during times of net outflows, it also means that both are likely to trade higher again once flows ramp up.  

Long-term Bitcoin Hodlers taking Profits

Long-term holders remain in distribution mode and have been booking profits over the past few months, starting in July. Previous waves (Dec 2023, Oct 2024) lasted roughly four months, so we believe that this current profit-taking period could come to an end rather soon. Once the long-term holder supply starts increasing again, the likelihood of a bottom increases substantially. 

U.S. Government Shutdown without any Deals

As we mentioned above, the U.S. government has been in a shutdown since 1 October 2025, and the shutdown has had significant effects on market dynamics, as it is preventing much-needed liquidity from flowing into the banking system. 

While these points above are possible reasons for this downtrend, they are all very likely to be temporary in nature. Once resolved, the outlook well into 2026 remains constructive. We will return to this in the final chapter of this newsletter with a look ahead. 

Chart of the Week: Prediction Markets

We have mentioned it multiple times in this newsletter, and the recent news from Google has once again made it as clear as daylight: prediction markets are on their way into the mainstream. Polymarket and Kalshi have made multiple headlines with their funding rounds, and Robinhood recorded $2.3 billion in prediction market volume in Q3 and $2.5 billion in October, implying a $300 million annual revenue run rate. Coinbase is also expected to launch prediction markets by year-end, and the numbers from Polymarket and Kalshi are rising as well. Weekly trading volume on prediction markets reached a new all-time high last week for the 13th consecutive week, surpassing $2.2 billion and far exceeding last year's high from November during the U.S. election.

What’s Happening Onchain? MegaETH Allocations, Monad TGE & Privacy Coins 

Following last week’s public sale on Sonar, MegaETH yesterday announced the final allocations for all participants and refunded roughly $1.3 billion to those who did not receive an allocation during the public sale. The majority of users (73 percent) received the minimum allocation of $2’650 in MEGA tokens, while 1.7 percent were rewarded with more than $100’000 in MEGA. 

While MegaETH investors now know how many tokens they received (the minimum allocation is currently worth almost $11’000, up 4x from the initial investment), Monad announced their TGE for November 24, exciting times ahead. There is currently an open bet on Polymarket where speculators are betting on Monad’s FDV one day after launch. The majority of users expect Monad to launch above an FDV of $4 billion, while odds for greater than $5 billion are also quite elevated at 43 percent. 

As you’ve surely seen, Zcash and other privacy coins are in their own little bull market right now, with ZEC up more than 50 percent in November and up almost 730 percent since the beginning of October. DASH is up 140 percent over the past seven days, followed by other privacy projects such as Decred and Secret, both up more than 100 percent in November as well. The total market cap of privacy coins sits at $28.2 billion, with Zcash and Monero accounting for more than half. 

Digital Asset Fund Flows: The Outflows continue 

Last week, digital asset investment products saw net outflows of $360 million. Interestingly, Bitcoin was the only asset that saw large outflows of almost $950 million, mainly driven by the U.S.-listed spot ETFs. Solana, on the other hand, finished the first week of the SOL spot ETFs with strong inflows of $421 million, followed by Ethereum with almost $60 million in net inflows and XRP with $43 million. 

This week, the Bitcoin spot ETFs started with large outflows again, with almost $900 million leaving the products from Monday to Wednesday. Yesterday marked the first day with inflows this week, with $240 million entering. Ethereum has followed its big brother closely, with roughly $450 million in net outflows so far this week. Solana, on the other hand, has seen net inflows of $120 million so far. 

As we mentioned earlier, the flows from the ETFs and the price action are closely correlated, and it makes sense to keep an eye on this, as exhaustion in selling from the spot ETFs could signal a change in trend for the overall crypto market. 

In other news, Strategy bought 397 BTC for roughly $46 million at an average price of $114’771 last week, meaning that Saylor once again managed to buy the top, as Bitcoin only traded above the average buying price for a very short period of time. 

Tom Lee, the Michael Saylor of Ethereum, and Bitmine also increased their ETH holdings by 82’300 Ether last week, bringing their total ETH holdings to almost 3.4 million Ether. 

Market Sentiment: Extreme Fear in all Markets 

Both the crypto and stock market fear and greed indices are in extreme fear (24), reaching their lowest levels since April this year, when Trump shook the world with his tariff announcements. Meanwhile, AAII members who were really bullish last week are now less optimistic again, with 38 percent feeling bullish versus 36 percent feeling bearish for the stock market over the next six months. Looking at the current price action, it is likely that next week's data will shift further toward the bear side, as individual investors are often influenced by negative price action in forming their outlook and sentiment. 

In the chart below, we observe a steady downward trend in sentiment for the crypto markets since the summer, when sentiment stagnated within the greedy level. Sentiment has followed price action, and with impulsive moves to the upside missing, this muted development is also reflected in the sentiment index. While things are not looking bright at the moment, the index being in extreme fear is an interesting indication of a potential bottom in price over the coming days or weeks.

Other Relevant News 

• Tether’s Q3 2025 attestation report confirms over $10 billion profit year-to-date and a record $135 billion exposure to U.S. Treasuries, making it the 17th largest holder globally. – Link 

• Animoca Brands has filed for a U.S. listing via a proposed reverse merger with Singapore’s Currency Group on Nasdaq, targeting a valuation of around $1 billion. – Link 

• According to CNBC, digital asset infrastructure company Ripple has announced the completion of a $500 million funding round, raising its valuation to $40 billion. – Link 

Looking Ahead: Extreme Fear, Uncertainty, but a Constructive Outlook into 2026 

Going into the last two months of 2025 and into next year, it’s important to note that most of the current uncertainty is likely temporary noise, and the outlook for 2026 remains promising. The crypto industry has witnessed the start of institutional integration, which is set to evolve over the next few years. At the same time, the Fed is on the brink of potentially becoming largely dovish for 2026, with President Trump able to appoint Chairman Powell’s successor in the spring. The Fed’s balance sheet contraction is nearing its end, liquidity conditions are set to improve, and with the midterm elections coming up in November 2026, it’s hard to see the U.S. stock market taking any hard hits in the meantime. 

In the short term, the end of the government shutdown in the U.S. could certainly act as a positive news catalyst for both the stock market and crypto, as it would enable liquidity to flow into the banking system again and save the Fed from the blind flight they are currently on. The FOMC meeting in December is another important date to remember, as there is currently quite a bit of uncertainty among market participants regarding their decision in the final interest rate meeting of 2025. Polymarket currently prices the odds of a rate cut at 72 cents per share, while the probability of a rate cut on the CME FedWatch Tool is only at 65 percent, with a 35 percent chance of rates remaining unchanged. 

Below, you can find some of the key data releases and events to watch out for next week. 

Wednesday, 12 November 2025 

Japan – PPI 

Thursday, 13 November 2025 

Great Britain – GDP 

Switzerland – PPI 

USA – CPI, Core CPI 

China – Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate 

Friday, 14 November 2025 

Eurozone – GDP, Employment data