Risk-Off Before Jackson Hole, Brazil SBR? and Ether is Up vs. Bitcoin

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This Week’s Top Stories

“Brazil to hold first hearing on proposed $19 billion Bitcoin Strategic Reserve” – 20 August 2025 

• Brazil’s Congress communicated in November 2024 that it was exploring the idea of creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve as a hedge against global risks.
• This week, Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies’ Economic Development Commission held its first hearing to examine a proposal to establish a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (RESBit) worth up to $18.6 billion, as Agência Câmara de Notícias reported.

“FOMC Minutes: Divided Fed worried about tariffs, inflation, and the labor market.”– 20 August 2025 

• The meeting minutes from the July FOMC meeting revealed that officials were concerned about the state of the labor market and inflation, though most agreed that it was too soon to lower interest rates.
• In July, Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voted against the decision to hold rates steady, preferring to begin lowering the key rate. This marked the first time in more than 30 years that multiple governors voted against a rate decision.
• With the Jackson Hole Symposium taking place today and Jerome Powell delivering his final speech at the annual event, there are arguments to be made that the FOMC minutes have laid the groundwork for a hawkish surprise, as the minutes were outright hawkish and hinted at a committee not inclined to cut in September at all.

“Jackson Hole Symposium: Powell’s last one – what will his legacy be?” – 22 August 2025 

• The Jackson Hole Symposium has always been an important event for markets worldwide, as policymakers often share meaningful indications for the upcoming FOMC meetings. This one is no different; market participants will watch for any indication of whether a rate cut will come in September.
• But it is also important to keep the big picture in mind. Powell is stepping down next year; this is his last speech at Jackson Hole and should be viewed as his legacy speech.
• Historically, Powell’s speeches at Jackson Hole haven’t been about what the Fed is going to do tactically at the next meeting (though they may provide some clues). They’ve been much broader in scope, explaining current actions in a wider context.
• This means Powell will likely talk about his broader thoughts on monetary policy frameworks, potential changes to balance sheet policy, and how all of that might affect their view of the neutral rate and its impact on long-term inflation expectations.

A Quick Crypto Overview: Risk-Off Before Jackson Hole

Just last week, Bitcoin was trading at new all-time highs, and Ethereum was flirting with a new ATH of its own. Today, we are looking at a different picture: Bitcoin is trading just below $113’000 at the time of writing, and Ethereum is back below $4’300 after multiple days of risk-off sentiment ahead of the much-anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium. 

Historically, Jackson Hole has often had a negative impact on asset prices, and September overall is not a very bullish month for U.S. stocks and crypto. 

With that being said, Bitcoin dominance has seemingly found a bottom around the 59 percent level. It will be key to watch how it trades from here. A breakdown would give altcoins some room to the upside. A re-acceleration would likely occur in a further risk-off environment, as Bitcoin often underperforms altcoins on the way down during corrections. 

When looking at the performance of crypto in the month of August, we observe that LINK, AERO, ENA, and MNT are among the top performers, all driven by news catalysts, buy-back programs, and partnership announcements. OKB, the token of the crypto exchange OKX, is leading the pack with a monthly performance of 380 percent after the announcement of a huge supply burn. 

Chart of the Week: Ethereum/Bitcoin

Ethereum is continuing to attract a lot of capital, be it from the ETFs or DATs such as BitMine or Sharplink Gaming. The Ether spot ETFs had a record week last week but saw some outflows this week up until yesterday, when they saw almost $300 million in inflows, compared to almost $200 million in net outflows for the Bitcoin spot ETFs. 

This institutional interest can also be seen in the ETHBTC chart, which is up 6 percent since Wednesday this week, and up more than 25 percent since the end of July.

What’s Happening Onchain? Kanye Coin, Alpenglow Voting & Ethereum Validator Exit Queue

This week, Kanye West launched his own memecoin with the ticker YZY on Solana. The market cap reached more than $3 billion in a matter of minutes and lost much of it just as quickly. The coin shot up 1,400 percent in half an hour and then dropped 70 percent over the following two hours. 

The launch has earned considerable criticism over the past few days, as the tokenomics revealed that Yeezy Investments controls 70 percent of the supply, with various aspects of the launch reminding many investors of the Libra token debut back in February of this year. 

The launch was picked up by almost every major music news outlet and has attracted significant attention on social media. 

Solana’s new consensus proposal (SIMD-0326) has entered the community governance stage. Alpenglow is a new consensus protocol for Solana, set to replace Proof-of-History and TowerBFT. It aims to reduce block finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. 

Voting will take place between Epochs 840 and 842. At the time of writing, we are in Epoch 837, with each Epoch lasting approximately two days. You can track the Epochs here. 

The Ethereum validator exit queue reached a new high this week, with over 900’000 ETH waiting to exit. The entry queue has also increased since the beginning of August, with almost 350’000 ETH waiting to enter as of last week. The current queue wait time is more than 15 days, compared to less than four days to enter. 

The number of active validators has declined slightly from its recent all-time high but remains well above one million. One reason behind the growing validator exit queue could be the likely imminent approval of staking for Ethereum spot ETFs, with certain holders anticipating a switch into TradFi products for operational security reasons. 

Digital Asset Fund Flows: Ethereum is Dominating Institutional Flows 

Last week, digital asset investment products saw $3.75 billion in net inflows — the fourth-largest weekly inflow on record. Ethereum led this record week with net inflows of a staggering $2.87 billion, while Bitcoin attracted $550 million, followed by $180 million for Solana and $125 million for XRP. 

Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have also been highly active in recent weeks: BitMine purchased over 800’000 ETH in August alone and now holds 1.5 million Ether. Sharplink Gaming has acquired nearly 300’000 ETH this month and currently holds 740’000 ETH. 

In other news, Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund increased its indirect Bitcoin exposure by almost 90 percent in the second quarter of 2025. The bulk of the exposure is held in Strategy shares. Norges Bank Investment Management, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund with $1.7 trillion in assets, now holds bitcoin-equivalent exposure of roughly 11’400 BTC — worth $1.3 billion, or 0.07 percent of total assets. 

Market Sentiment: Crypto Market in “Neutral” Territory

When looking at market sentiment, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows neutral sentiment (50) after briefly dipping into fearful territory on Wednesday. The CNN Fear and Greed Index for the stock market is also at neutral levels. 

The AAII sentiment survey continues to reveal a rather bearish sentiment among individual investors in the U.S., as almost 45 percent are bearish on the stock market for the coming six months, with the amount of bullish members still around 30 percent. This is especially interesting as stock indices are currently trading at ATHs.

Other Relevant News 

• The UAE’s tourism sector is rapidly embracing crypto payments. Emirates, Air Arabia, Travala, and Alternative Airlines now support ticket bookings with BTC, ETH, USDT, and more. – Link
• China may allow yuan-backed stablecoins for the first time, with a roadmap under review, and Hong Kong and Shanghai leading the rollout. – Link
• Meta puts the brakes on its massive AI talent spending spree. – Link

Looking Ahead: Jackson Hole, U.S. Inflation Data & September FOMC 

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market corrected to the downside this week, likely due to investors taking some risk off the table ahead of today’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell’s speech will very likely influence asset prices sharply, with a hawkish surprise being negative, while a more dovish-than-anticipated speech could potentially reignite the recent rally. 

On the macro front, the coming weeks will also be important. Investors should keep an eye on U.S. inflation data, which will be released on September 11th, and of course, the FOMC meeting on 17 September. 

September has historically not been a positive month for Bitcoin and the crypto market. There is an elevated chance that markets may see further downward price action in the coming weeks, particularly toward the end of the month. 

Ethereum should be on traders’ radar, as institutional flows into ETH have overtaken those into BTC over the past few weeks. This positive momentum for Ethereum is also bringing some life to altcoins, but a hawkish shock from Powell today would likely dampen that momentum — at least temporarily. 

Below, you can find some of the key data releases and events to watch out for next week. 

Monday, 25 August 2025 

Switzerland – Employment Level 

Tuesday, 26 August 2025 

Japan – BoJ Core CPI 

Thursday, 28 August 2025 

Switzerland – GDP 

USA – Core PCE Prices, PCE Prices 

USA – GDP 

USA – Initial Jobless Claims 

Friday, 29 August 2025 

USA – Core PCE Price Index, PCE Price Index