Bye Gary, Miners Are Buying? When $100k? And Retail Is Coming Back

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This Week’s Top Stories

“The Trump Administration Plans To Establish A Cryptocurrency Advisory Committee” – Thursday, 21 November

• The Trump administration plans to establish a cryptocurrency advisory committee to drive crypto legislation, coordinate multi-agency regulations, and implement a bitcoin reserve strategy. The committee may either be part of the White House National Economic Council or operate as an independent entity, with industry experts advising on policy development.
• Donald Trump and his team have already met with CEOs of U.S.-based crypto companies such as Ripple, Kraken, and Circle.

 “Gary Gensler Will Step Down Effective 20 January 2025” – Thursday, 21 November

• The U.S. SEC Chair announced on X that he will be stepping down as Chairman, effective 20 January 2025. The crypto world had been speculating on whether he would step down or if Trump would have to fire him. Now, Gensler has taken matters into his own hands and announced his resignation. The crypto market reacted very positively to the news, with Bitcoin trading above $99’000 and Solana reaching a new all-time high.

“Multiple Institutions Are Advancing the Approval for Solana Spot ETFs” – Thursday, 21 November

• According to Fox reporter Eleanor Terrett, multiple institutions are advancing the approval of Solana spot ETFs. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has started processing related S-1 applications and may receive Form “19b4” in the next few days. Currently, VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise and Canary Funds have submitted applications.
• While these applications do not guarantee approval by the SEC, recent developments suggest that issuers are speculating on higher approval odds. Paired with the news of Gary Gensler stepping down, Solana reached a new all-time high on Thursday, trading above $260.

“Shanghai Court: Holding Crypto Is Not Illegal for Chinese Individuals” – Wednesday, 20 November

• A Shanghai court has released an opinion stating that personal ownership of cryptocurrencies is not against Chinese law. However, Chinese business entities are prohibited from participating in crypto investments or token issuances.
• China has maintained a strong anti-crypto stance since 2017, banning initial coin offerings and ordering the closure of various exchanges. In 2021, the country further tightened its regulations by banning bitcoin mining and declaring crypto-related business activities illegal.
• This new development could be seen as a reaction to recent events in the U.S., where soon-to-be U.S. President Trump is taking a pro-crypto position and pushing for the U.S. to become the leading crypto nation globally.

A Quick Crypto Overview: Tik Tok, When $100k?

Bitcoin is trading above $99’000 at the time of writing. To be honest, it feels surreal to write this down. We are now less than $1’000 away from the $100’000 milestone. What once seemed like a distant dream is now just a few hundred dollars away. What a journey!

But Bitcoin isn’t the only one hitting record levels. Solana reached a new all-time high yesterday, surpassing its previous 2021 peak. It’s now up an incredible 3’300 percent from its 2022 bear market lows. Wow!

Meanwhile, Ethereum has hit another multi-year low against Bitcoin. It feels like it’s only a matter of time before it finally finds a bottom against its "big brother" – though crypto traders have been saying this for a while now. Let’s keep an eye on it; Ethereum finding a bottom against Bitcoin would certainly bode well for the broader altcoin market.

Bitcoin dominance remains on an uptrend, currently above 60%. The question is, how much momentum does it have left? Dominance has been climbing steadily since September 2022, but it’s worth watching for any signs of a shift.

Chart of the Week: Ethereum vs Bitcoin

Let us take a look at the above-mentioned Ethereum vs Bitcoin chart. At the time of writing, it is trading at 0.034, a level last seen during the week of 29 March 2021. Back then, Ethereum was trading around $2’000, while Bitcoin was hovering near $60’000.

This appears to be a significant price level, as it marked the point where Ethereum broke out in spring 2021, delivering an impressive 170 percent rally against Bitcoin in just a few weeks. Crypto traders are closely watching this level for any signs of a reaction. Let’s join them and see if Ethereum can finally establish a bottom here.

What’s Happening On-Chain? Memes, Is SUI The New SOL? And NFTs…

As we’ve mentioned several times before, memecoins have been a hot topic in the world of altcoins over the past year. This week the Solana ecosystem is dominating the space in terms of fees once more. In the top ten protocols by fees, five are on Solana this week. Jito has generated $77.5 million in fees over the past seven days, Raydium $83.1 million, and Pump.Fun $28.6 million, just to name a few. Tether holds the number one spot, while Ethena comes in fifth.

Yesterday, the Sui network was suspected to have been down for more than an hour – is it really stepping into the footsteps of Solana? Ultimately, the downtime lasted a little over two hours. According to the official explanation, a validator crashed due to an error in the transaction scheduling logic, but the issue has since been resolved.

Remember NFTs? Yes, they’re still around – and they might be gearing up for a comeback in the coming months, at least according to Yat Siu. In our Verified Podcast, he shared his belief that NFTs will make a strong return. Adding to the buzz, last week McDonald’s announced a brand partnership with the Ethereum NFT collection Doodles to launch the “GM Spread Joy” event. Since 18 November, McCafé cups have featured Doodles’ rainbow-themed designs. Customers in the U.S. who purchase a McCafé drink can unlock a variety of Doodles benefits.

Digital Asset Fund Flows: $100 Billion Total Net Asset Value of U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs

Last week, digital asset investment products recorded a total of $2.2 billion in net inflows, bringing the total Assets Under Management (AUM) for all digital asset investment products to a new all-time high of $138 billion. Bitcoin dominated the inflows with $1.4 billion, followed by Ethereum with $646 million. Almost all the net inflows were concentrated in the U.S., with less than $100 million directed to other countries such as Switzerland, Hong Kong, and Canada.

This week, the total net asset value of all U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs combined surpassed $100 billion for the first time.

This week, bitcoin spot ETF flows are once again reflecting strong buyer interest, with more than $1 billion in inflows during the first two days. The momentum then accelerated to $700 million in net inflows on Wednesday and $1 billion on Thursday alone. BlackRock’s IBIT saw more than $600 million in inflows on Wednesday and Thursday this week.

While Ethereum had a strong performance last week, this week has shown little action, with four days of net outflows, though the outflows remain minor.

Market Sentiment; Extreme Greed

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is in Extreme Greed (94) at the time of writing. This is noteworthy, as the index has only reached such levels three times before since early 2018: in June 2019, between November 2020 and January 2021, and in the second half of February 2021.

While we’ve mentioned before that the market can remain in Extreme Greed for a while, such extremes should be viewed with caution, as they reflect current market sentiment. Additionally, Coinbase has surged to the number one spot in the "Free Finance" category of Apple’s iOS App Store. In the overall app store ranking, Coinbase is currently in the 24th spot. Not only that, but Phantom has also reached an all-time high on the iOS App Store this week, taking the number two spot among free utility apps, second only to Google.

Bitcoin is trading close to $100’000, and retail seems to be returning to the market. While a breakout above the magic number could trigger a further rally, current sentiment levels warrant caution. The chances of a local pullback could be increasing as sentiment rises.

Other Relevant News

• Court documents show that Tesla CEO Elon Musk rejected OpenAI's proposal to conduct an ICO to issue cryptocurrency in 2018. – Link
• MicroStrategy has acquired 51’780 BTC for $4.6 billion at $88’627 per bitcoin. – Link
• According to WSJ, President-elect Donald Trump plans to meet with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong. The talks are expected to cover cryptocurrency regulation. – Link
• Trump’s Media and Technology Group (TMTG) is negotiating with the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to acquire the cryptocurrency trading platform Bakkt. – Link
• NVIDIA announced its fiscal 2025 third-quarter results, reporting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.81, exceeding the market estimate of $0.74. – Link
• The final tally of IBIT's first day of options trading recorded a total notional volume of nearly $1.9 billion, with 354k contracts traded. – Link
• Schwab will enter crypto spot markets. – Link
• Marathon Digital Issues $850M Convertible Note Sale to Repurchase Debt, Acquire Bitcoin. – Link

Looking Ahead

Bitcoin is as close to the $100’000 mark as ever before, things are looking bright, retail investors seem to be coming back, Trump is on a roll when it comes to pushing his pro-crypto narrative, Gensler is gone, financial giants like Schwab are changing their minds on crypto, miners are buying instead of selling bitcoin and Saylor just keeps on stacking sats. What now?

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at very high levels and Bitcoin and quite a few cryptocurrencies have been trading up in a straight line over the past few weeks. There will likely be a pullback over the coming days or weeks, so market participants are hopefully cautiously checking their leverage positions to make sure they will not be wiped out on a two-digit-percentage flush to the downside.

A break of the magic $100’000 level could also spark another rally, as quite a few investors likely see the level as a strong psychological resistance, where many long-term investors are thinking of taking some chips off the table.

The news surrounding the resignation of Gensler and Trump’s moves to set up a cryptocurrency advisory team are certainly shaping up to have a positive impact on the longer end, but short-term price action could see some volatility.

Below, you can find some of the key data releases and events to watch out for next week.

Monday, 25 November 2024

• Switzerland – Employment Level

Tuesday, 26 November 2024

• USA – FOMC Meeting Minutes

Wednesday, 27 November 2024

• USA – PCE Price Index, Core PCE Price Index
• USA – GDP
• USA – Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Thursday, 28 November 2024

• USA – Thanksgiving Holiday
• Japan – Tokyo Core CPI, CPI

Friday, 29 November 2024

• USA – Thanksgiving Holiday (Early Close)
• Switzerland – GDP
• Eurozone – CPI