The Weekly Wrap: "Bunker Mode" by Justin Drake, U.S. Gov BTC Transfer & More

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This Week’s Top Stories

“Ethereum researcher Justin Drake calls for 'bunker mode' planning over private key recovery risk.” – Wednesday, 7 October 2026 

• Justin Drake has called to start planning for what he described as "bunker mode." He recommended moving crypto assets to fresh addresses that keep their public keys hidden behind a hash.
• Drake's concern is that the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm could potentially be broken before "q-day," when quantum computers become powerful enough to break widely used public-key cryptography.
• Drake linked his warning to recent progress in AI-generated mathematics. He pointed to OpenAI's publication this week of 722 mathematical manuscripts produced by an internal model. Drake described the release as evidence that "mathematical superintelligence is upon us."
• In response to Drake's claims, Yehuda Lindell, Head of Cryptography at Coinbase, said that there is "no evidence whatsoever" that decades-old hardness assumptions behind elliptic-curve cryptography have been weakened.
• Vitalik Buterin also responded to Drake's claims on Wednesday, saying the industry should take AI-accelerated mathematics seriously but warning users against rushing into wallet migrations.

“Samsung Partners with Solana to Natively Deliver Stablecoins in Samsung Wallet.” – Thursday, 8 October 2026 

• Samsung Wallet and Samsung Pay will support USDC transfers on Solana for cross-border remittances, starting in the last week of October for users on U.S. Galaxy devices.
• The feature will be built into Samsung Wallet, with fiat on- and off-ramps, rather than a separate crypto app. Users will be able to send USDC to compatible external wallets.

“Hyperliquid Labs Begins $330 Million HYPE OTC Distribution.” – Thursday, 8 October 2026 

• Hyperliquid Labs completed the seven-day unstaking of 3.75 million HYPE worth about $330 million. The tokens were moved to the team's spot balance for an OTC deal with an undisclosed institution.
• It is not yet known who the buyer in this OTC deal is. Rumors suggested that it might be Hyperliquid Strategies, but its CEO stated this week that Hyperliquid Strategies is not the buyer of the 3.75M HYPE tokens. Other speculation is that the buyer is either Payward, the parent company behind Kraken, or Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the company behind the NYSE and others.

 AI and Quantum fears & more spooked the markets this week 

There was quite some uncertainty in the markets this week following remarks from Justin Drake regarding AI and quantum risk. But that was not the only reason. The US government transferred more than 15K BTC on Thursday, coins worth more than $1.5B, and there was much speculation about the reasons behind these transfers. Some thought they might be repayments related to the infamous Bitfinex hack, while others speculated that they might be connected with Justin Drake’s comments. The Financial Times report regarding OpenAI, which said that its annualized revenue would likely fall short of 2026 expectations by $20B, with the company likely moving toward yearly revenue of $50B instead of the previously expected $70B, did not help the situation and likely fueled the move lower in crypto assets this week. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin and most crypto assets have rebounded a bit, with BTC up almost 3% from last night’s low. TradFi also found a floor last night, as the S&P 500 is currently up almost 1% on Hyperliquid. Interestingly, gold is up almost 3% from its bottom on Wednesday, while oil is trading more or less sideways, with a slight tendency to the upside.

BTC options highlight $78K and $90K as important levels to watch 

The options positioning for BTC favors tactical upside exposure as long as $78K holds. The correction last night stopped above $80K. As long as BTC is not trading lower, the options positioning would suggest that many market participants will now have their eyes on the $90K level on the upside. 

As mentioned, the put open interest concentrates around $78K, which can be interpreted as primary downside support, followed by $72K and a deeper $60K floor. 

The positive skewness provides the strongest bullish derivatives signal since end-2025, supporting a constructive BTC bias as long as it holds above the said $78K level.

Quiet onchain days, ZachXBT investigation & more 

There has not been much happening onchain these days. Activity on the Robinhood chain has slowed down drastically over the past few weeks, and memecoin activity overall remained muted this week. The large transfers from the US government were about as exciting as things get in the onchain world. 

There was some news, though. Last week, Blast announced its shutdown, and this week, Abstract followed suit, saying that its parent company would refocus its resources on Pudgy Penguins, its NFTs and the Pengu token. 

ZachXBT, the onchain investigator, published a very interesting report on how he infiltrated a Chinese organized crime syndicate that has laundered more than $1B across multiple exploits for the North Korean Lazarus Group. It is an interesting read if you want some insight into how these criminals operate. 

In the Hyperliquid world, the Assistance Fund received its first $15M payment under the AQAv2 framework from Circle to buy back and burn HYPE tokens. Under the mechanism, roughly 90% of the cost-adjusted reserve yield generated on USDC supply is shared with the protocol and routed to the Assistance Fund, which purchases and burns HYPE tokens. This first payment covered a 30-day period. Overall, based on current USDC holdings on Hyperliquid, this new framework will likely lead to annualized HYPE buybacks and burns of around $200M.

Tom Lee says ETH purchases will stop at 5% of circulating supply 

Strategy announced on Monday that the company had acquired 334 BTC for roughly $30M last week, bringing its total holdings to 848K BTC. The purchase was funded with $15.7M from MSTR share sales and $13M in cash. Strategy also repurchased about $176.3M of STRC shares between September 28 and October 4. 

BitMine continued its buying spree as well. What a surprise, right? But there was some additional news this week that might come as a surprise to some. The company has always said that its goal is to own 5% of all ETH in circulation. With its most recent purchase, which brought its total holdings above 6M ETH, the company is now 99% of the way towards that goal. Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, said at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that the company will, in fact, stop accumulating ETH once its holdings reach 5% of the token’s circulating supply. 

BitMine has purchased ETH every week since launching its Ethereum treasury strategy in June 2025 and needs to purchase about 100K more tokens to reach the 5% target. At last week’s buying pace, that would take an estimated six to seven weeks. But what then? 

Looking at this week’s spot ETF flows, we observe that we might be in for a week of outflows for the BTC, ETH, SOL and HYPE spot ETFs, following a couple of positive weeks for these crypto products. Ether spot ETFs, in particular, are looking at large outflows this week, following an already negative week last week. Bitcoin saw net inflows last week but is also looking at more than $500M in net outflows so far this week.

46.5% of AAII members continue to feel bearish for stocks 

The AAII Sentiment Survey continues to show that individual investors in the US are bearish about the stock market over the coming six months. The share of respondents who feel bearish has been relatively high for quite some time, which is surprising given that US stock indices are at all-time highs. Historically, around 31.5% of respondents have been bearish, compared with 46.5% this week. Interestingly, respondents are sharply divided between bulls and bears, while the share of neutral respondents stands at 19%, well below the historical average of 31%. 

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the greed zone at 59, although it has cooled slightly from last week’s reading of 72. The CNN Fear and Greed Index for the US stock market remains in the fear zone at 38, unchanged from recent weeks.

• Ondo launches onchain private-company exposure, starting with AI. – Link 
• CFTC proposes new federal framework for leveraged retail crypto trading. – Link 
• Strive adds 2K Bitcoin in biggest buy since June, closes in on MARA. – Link

Uptober or Octover? 

The first couple of days of the new month have certainly not been boring. Bitcoin continues to trade above $80K, while many altcoins have seen double-digit percentage declines over the past couple of days. Market participants are asking themselves whether this is the first correction of the bull market or a sign of a weak Q4, with prices generally moving lower. 

The midterm elections are approaching, the wars in Iran and Ukraine are ongoing, pressure on oil prices is real, and US Treasury yields are at multi-year highs. There are many reasons to feel uncertain or even bearish these days, yet the markets have held up rather well so far. As we mentioned earlier, the $78K level is important for BTC from an options-positioning perspective. Next week, US inflation data should shed some light on Fed policy and broader macroeconomic trends in the coming weeks. 

Below, you can find some of the key data releases and events to watch out for next week. 

Monday, 12 October 2026 

USA – IMF Meetings 

Tuesday, 13 October 2026 

Japan – PPI 

USA – IMF Meetings 

Wednesday, 14 October 2026 

China – CPI, PPI 

USA – CPI, Core CPI 

USA – IMF Meetings 

Thursday, 15 October 2026 

Switzerland – PPI 

USA – PPI, Core PPI 

USA – Retail Sales 

USA – Initial Jobless Claims 

USA – IMF Meetings 

Friday, 16 October 2026 

Eurozone – CPI, Core CPI