The Weekly Wrap: Crypto Holding Steady Amid Geopolitical Turbulence

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This Week’s Top Stories

“Israel and the U.S. carried out strikes on Iran starting on the Weekend–Bitcoin and crypto held up despite the turbulence.” – Last Weekend 

• On Saturday morning, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel launched a "preemptive strike" against Iran. The government declared a nationwide state of emergency, citing expectations of potential Iranian retaliation using drones and ballistic missiles.
• Shortly after, U.S. President Trump announced a large-scale military attack on Iran to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime and to destroy its nuclear program. Trump also called for a regime change.
• The joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran have killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader for nearly four decades, thrusting the country into uncertainty and sparking a conflict that could draw in much of the Middle East.
• Over the course of the week, the conflict continued to escalate as Iran hit back with missile strikes and drones and attacked various countries in the region, such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, or Saudi Arabia.
• The crypto market initially traded to the downside early on Saturday morning but started to recover over the weekend and is currently trading significantly higher than on Saturday, with Bitcoin holding above $70’000 at the time of writing.

“Trump met with Coinbase CEO before bashing banks over crypto bill.” – Tuesday, 3 March 2026 

• On Tuesday, Trump posted on social media that he believes banks are trying to undermine the GENIUS Act and stall the advancement of new crypto policies in order to protect their influence and power.
• Banks are pushing to ban any type of stablecoin yield payments as part of a sweeping crypto regulatory bill that is currently pending in the Senate. However, a wide array of digital asset firms has fought back, and the rift helped derail the so-called crypto market structure legislation bill earlier this year.
• Trump urged the U.S. to complete market structure legislation and pass the Clarity Act as soon as possible, stating that the GENIUS Act was an important step toward making the United States the global crypto capital, while the Clarity Act would provide further regulatory clarity for the industry.

A Quick Crypto Overview: Crypto Markets are Up Despite Geopolitical Risks

The crypto market traded higher over the course of this week despite the escalation in Iran and the surrounding countries. Bitcoin is trading above $70’000 at the time of writing and is up roughly 12 percent from the Saturday morning lows. The total crypto market is also up around 10 percent since Saturday morning. 

The market overall is pretty divided when looking at individual crypto assets. Some are up double-digit percentage points this week, such as OKB (on the news of the strategic investment from ICE into the crypto exchange OKX), or NEAR, MNT, and CHZ, which are all up around 10 percent this week. 

The traditional markets traded roughly sideways this week. The S&P 500 is trading a little below last Friday’s close and is looking back on a volatile week, while the Nasdaq is slightly higher on the week. 

Gold traded significantly higher over the weekend and increased by almost 5 percent during the escalation of the conflict but then started correcting to the downside on Monday and is currently down more than 5 percent from Monday morning’s high. 

Both the Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance are up more than 2 percent this week, showcasing a shift into higher market cap coins, a dynamic which is also visible when we compare the increase of the total market cap this week in comparison with the total market cap (all coins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum). 

Chart of the Week: BTC is Outperforming Gold in the Lower Timeframes – a New Trend?

The conflict in Iran has seemingly started a potential new trend for Bitcoin in comparison with gold, as Bitcoin is up more than 15 percent against gold since the start of the war on Saturday. A look at the broader macro trend, of course, paints a different picture, with Bitcoin down more than 65 percent against gold since December 2024 and down more than 60 percent since last August. The BTC/Gold ratio is trading at the lowest level since fall 2023, but the recent price action is bringing back some hope for the holders of digital gold. It will need more time to develop and confirm this trend, but the first signs are here. Many investors are likely to watch the 12.80 level as support, while there is not much resistance to the upside, with key levels approaching around 19 or 20.

What’s Happening Onchain? Ethereum’s Validator Queue, Backpack’s Onchain IPO & Hyperliquid in the News 

With the start of the new year, Ethereum’s validator queue started increasing over January and February and continues to hold steady with over 3’290’000 ETH waiting to join Ethereum’s validator set as of today. At the beginning of February, this number was as high as 4 million, up significantly from 900’000 at the start of the year. This increase in the staking entry queue on Ethereum matters because it can be perceived as a sign that the next wave of long-term investors is choosing to lock supply for yield. 

The surge in new staking demand follows a period last year when the validator exit queue spiked sharply, peaking near 2.7 million ETH in September before steadily falling toward zero by early 2026. The reversal indicates that while some investors withdrew staking positions in 2025, the current market environment is drawing capital back into Ethereum’s validator ecosystem.

The crypto trading platform Backpack announced the launch of a brand new onchain IPO service. Users can receive IPO share allocations directly through Backpack, with the underlying infrastructure provided by Superstate. The shares represent actual equity and support direct ownership on the Solana blockchain. 

Amid the escalation in Iran, the Hyperliquid exchange was repeatedly mentioned in TradFi media as the venue for price discovery on weekends, particularly during volatile events such as the attack on Iran on Saturday. The Bloomberg Terminal mentioned Hyperliquid’s oil-linked contract over the weekend as it increased by more than 4 percent amid the attacks and noted that the contracts trade around the clock and have become a popular way to speculate across markets outside traditional hours. 

Digital Asset Fund Flows: $1B in Inflows Puts an End to the Outflow Streak 

Last week, digital asset investment products saw net inflows of $1 billion, finally breaking a five-week outflow streak. The flows were led by the US at $957 million, with continued inflows across Canada, Germany, and Switzerland. Bitcoin dominated inflows with $881 million in net inflows. Ethereum recorded its strongest week since mid-January, while Solana continues to lead altcoins on a YTD basis. 

This week looks promising again as Bitcoin is currently sitting at roughly $1 billion in net inflows so far, with Friday’s number obviously still outstanding. Ethereum is also on track for a positive week, currently with $100 million in net inflows. Interestingly, Solana saw its first day with net outflows in a long time yesterday, with $6 million leaving the products. 

Eric Balchunas posted yesterday on X that the YTD net outflows were almost fully reversed over the course of this week, with two days of more than $400 million in net inflows on Monday and Wednesday. 

Market Sentiment: Extreme Fear in Crypto and Fear in U.S. Stock Markets 

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index continues to remain in extremely fearful territory, with sentiment not recovering for over a month now. The CNN Fear and Greed Index fell back into fear this week as well, while AAII members did not change their stance compared to the previous week, with a relatively low share of members feeling bullish (33 percent) and 35 percent feeling bearish when looking at the next six months.

Other Relevant News 

• Kraken stated that its banking division has obtained access to the Federal Reserve’s core payment system. – Link

• a16z crypto is raising its fifth crypto fund with a target of about $2B and aims to close the raise in the first half of 2026. – Link 

• Hyperliquid Strategies ($ PURR) is currently the only Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) in profit, with unrealized gains of $356M. – Link 

• Morgan Stanley’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Amy Oldenburg, said the firm plans to develop its own Bitcoin custody and trading services. – Link 

Looking Ahead: Surprisingly Strong Crypto Market – but for How Long? 

As mentioned, the crypto markets have reacted surprisingly positively to the news surrounding the escalation in Iran. Bitcoin is holding above $70’000 and odds seem to have slightly shifted towards a potential further upward movement over the coming weeks. A close above $74’500 could open the doors towards $80’000, while a loss of $69’000 would likely be perceived as bearish, with market participants expecting lower levels. 

When looking at the big picture, the crypto markets have undergone a notable repricing in recent weeks. Sentiment, positioning, and risk metrics have fallen to levels that historically have been associated with late-stage bear market phases. At the same time, macroeconomic indicators are sending mixed signals: expansionary economic data coincide with rising oil prices and delayed expectations for interest rate cuts. While there is still a possibility for lower prices, the first half of 2026 may increasingly be emerging as a structural accumulation window for cryptocurrencies. 

Below, you can find some of the key data releases and events to watch out for next week. 

Monday, 9 March 2026 

China: - CPI and PPI  

Tuesday, 10 March 2026 

Japan – GDP 

Wednesday, 11 March 2026 

Japan – PPI, U.S. CPI and Core CPI  

Thursday, 12 March 2026 

U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims, PPI and Core PPI 

Friday, 13 March 2026 

U.S. – GDP, PCE Price Index and Core PCE Price Index, JOLTs Job Openings