What happened last week

This week the saga continues with a rather steady market, leaning slightly towards the green. In the realm of traditional equities, Asia is down today, particularly the Nikkei, as Japan revised its Q2 GDP figures. Initially expected to show a growth of 5.5%, the revised numbers now stand at 4.8%, which is a noteworthy difference. Meanwhile, Hong Kong had to suspend Friday trading due to an incoming storm.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has reached settlements with three decentralized exchanges. These platforms failed to register as a swap execution facility, a designated contract market, and a futures commission merchant. Moreover, they neglected to establish a customer identification program to meet Bank Secrecy Act requirements. As one commissioner pointed out, there seems to be a misconception among DeFi operators that unlawful transactions become lawful when facilitated by smart contracts. The news had a limited impact on prices. For instance, ZRX experienced a brief 0.8% drop but generally continues to move in tandem with Bitcoin. The fines imposed on these exchanges ranged between $100,000 and $200,000.

On the global economic front, the trade war is ongoing. Apple's stock took a hit, declining by more than 6% this week, despite the imminent launch of the new iPhone and rumors of a $100 price increase. In March, the U.S. and some European countries banned government officials from having TikTok on their phones due to security concerns. China has now responded by prohibiting its government officials and government owned companies from using iPhones.

Looking ahead to the weekend, all eyes will be on the G20 summit in India. Key topics are expected to include discussions on war, food and energy security, climate change, and debt. Time will tell if any surprises emerge from the summit.

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Our take

Despite choppy price action the current week wasn’t boring in terms of news flow. Most notably the ETH Spot ETF filing by Ark which became the first of its kind. Why not wait to file the ETH ETF until you have a BTC decision you may ask. The reason could be that there is a chance ETH will be classified as a commodity which would ease the approval process. In our view the market is in for a prolonged bear market with the nearest end in sight beyond the year end. 

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The week ahead

Monday, 11. September

• China Money Supply, Outstanding Loan Growth, Vehicle Sales

Tuesday, 12. September

• Eurozone Economic Sentiment
• India Inflation, Manufacturing Data
• OPEC monthly report

Wednesday, 13. September

• Japan PMI
• Eurozone Industrial Production
• US Mortgage Figures, Inflation Rate

Thursday, 14. September

• ECB Interest Rate Decision
• ECB Press Conference
• US Job Data, PPI

Friday, 15. September

• China Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate
• Eurozone Balance of Trade, Labour Cost, Wage Growth

Saturday, 16. September

• Ecofin Meeting