Bitcoin Suisse Crypto & Macro Report

Should we be scared? Against all odds, and despite the ‘second scare’ probably materializing around Q1/Q2 2024, it is what happens once the ‘second scare’ unfolds that is of concern. As soon as the system and the economy show sufficient cracks and the ‘second scare’ materializes, will most likely coincide with the point in time where monetary and liquidity conditions are being eased again. And crypto will likely lead the way of recovery.

During the current bear market, the crypto market converged substantially into the lower channel, while the risk has been low throughout various times, indicating that overall, we are close to the bottom.

Despite the historically implied certainty that economic turmoil, most likely a recession, is ahead of us, the crypto market progressed and recovered in line with expectations and our models’ predictions. Derived risk metrics and inflection points of long-term momentum indicate that the bottom has been in for the currently transitioning cycle.

Just on the weekend amidst the “crypto bank crash”, more than one million new BTC wallets have been created, an attestation to an inevitable trend of adoption, which reflects the “case for crypto” outlined earlier, proving quantitatively, that it is irresponsible to not have any allocation to crypto in a diversified portfolio.

Whether the bottom is in or not – based on our macro and technical analysis, Bitcoin appears to be significantly undervalued at present and therefore in “Deep Value”, long-term accumulation territory.